Sweden's Riksbank Holds Rate at 1.75% for Seventh Straight Meeting

Sweden's Riksbank held its policy rate at 1.75% on Thursday, the seventh consecutive meeting without a change, in a Nordic-specific decision that keeps the door open to a hike later this year. The decision, effective August 26, matched the expectations of all 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

What happened

The Executive Board, led by Governor Erik Thedéen, repeated its June guidance of roughly a 50% probability of a 25 basis-point hike before year-end. The board also restated its readiness to move faster if the conflict in the Middle East pushes up energy prices and reignites inflation.

Swedish inflation remains below target but has surprised to the upside. July CPIF rose 0.7% year-on-year against a forecast of 0.5%, and CPIF excluding energy came in at 0.6% versus an expected 0.2%. The Riksbank cut its 2026 CPIF forecast to 0.6% (from 0.8% in March) while raising its 2027 forecast to 2.7% (from 2.0%).

The decision at a glance:

• Policy rate: 1.75%, unchanged since September 2025
• July CPIF: 0.7% (forecast: 0.5%)
• 2026 CPIF forecast: cut to 0.6%
• Probability of a 2026 hike, per the board's own guidance: roughly 50%

Why it matters

The krona has traded weak through the summer, and analysts at Nordea and BNY expect EUR/SEK to test levels near 11.45 in the near term as long as the Riksbank stays on hold and inflation runs below target. A softer krona raises the cost of everything Sweden imports, a channel that can itself feed the inflation the Riksbank says it is watching.

For investors holding Swedish assets alongside international funds, an unchanged rate keeps mortgage costs and bond-fund yields anchored, while currency moves separately affect the krona value of any foreign holdings, a distinction that matters for anyone tracking total portfolio performance rather than individual line items.

The Riksbank has held the rate at 1.75% since September 2025, the longest stretch without a change since the tightening cycle that followed the 2022 inflation surge. That stability has given Swedish savers a predictable backdrop for mortgage and bond-fund pricing even as the krona has drifted, a split that shows up clearly only when the portfolio and currency legs of a return are measured separately.

What to watch next

The Riksbank's next decision is September 10, effective September 30. A faster escalation in the Middle East that lifts energy prices before then would raise the odds of an earlier hike. A continued cooling in inflation points instead to another hold, with the following meeting set for October 29.

Portfolio trackers that hold Swedish and international assets in one view make that split easier to read: a holding's local-currency return against the portion of its move driven by the krona.